Tariffs, a good or bad Idea?

The argument that “imposing tariffs on X is imposing a tax on Americans” is widely touted by political pundits, by Politicians, and even by news people. Given the President’s clear “America First” position, which side is right?

Goals of Study:

1.      Losses and costs

1.1.   How much money has flown out of this country to Mexico and China?

1.2.   How many families have lost their homes, savings, possibility for advancement because their jobs have been transferred to Mexico and China? What is the financial impact of this change?

1.3.   How much money will the tariffs cost consumers?

2.      Gains

2.1.   How much money will return to this country from Mexico and China if we have a 0-balance trade with them?

2.2.   How many American jobs will be created through that 0-balance of trade?

2.3.   Is there a gain or a loss in the President’s policies, and what are his chances of success.

I wish the news would provide answers to these questions, but I haven’t seen any.

In the coming days and weeks, I’ll try to answer them from public sources (I have no private ones). I am terribly disappointed that no one is trying to answer them, and if I’m wrong, hope to be corrected while I construct the information.

Methodology:

2.      Losses and costs

2.1.   How much money has flown out of this country to Mexico and China?

2.1.1. Establish the dates at which the imbalances with Mexico and China occurred

2.1.2.Establish their GNP and ours at that date.

2.1.3.Establish their GNP and ours today

2.1.4.Use projection to estimate our GNP today had the traditional GNP percentages held for the period.

2.1.5.Reach conclusions.

2.1.5.1.            What would our GNP have been, and what loss/gain would have been incurred.

2.1.5.2.            Specify confidence in these numbers based on historical evidence.

2.2.   How many families have lost their homes, savings, possibility for advancement because their jobs have been transferred to Mexico and China? What is the financial impact of this change?

2.2.1.Using the dates established in 1.1.1, get the percentage of people employed at the start of the period in all three countries.

2.2.2.Use projection to estimate what the percentage of people employed would be today had the traditional trends for employment held steady.

2.2.3.Reach conclusions.

2.2.3.1.            How many people lost/gained jobs.

2.2.3.2.            The monetary impact of the lost/gained jobs.

2.2.3.3.            Specify confidence in these numbers based on historical evidence.

2.3.   How much money will the tariffs cost consumers?

2.3.1. Research previous eras of tariffs and estimate the percent of the tariff that was passed on to the consumer over the life of the tariff.

2.3.2.Use government estimates of the tariff income as a result of Trump policies.

2.3.3.Apply the percentage established in 2.3.1 to estimate the cost.

2.3.4.Reach conclusions

2.3.4.1.            How much has the consumer paid for the tariff imposed.

2.3.4.2.            Specify the confidence in the number based on historical evidence.

2.4.   Study Conclusions:

2.4.1.Using the fungible loss/gain numbers collected in 2.1-2.3

2.4.1.1.            Establish the loss/gain numbers if the President succeeds, and the confidence that the numbers are correct.

I’d appreciate any help where I’m pointed to papers already answering these questions that are available, or criticisms of the methodology I’m embarking on.